What’s at stake for Arizona as Colorado River water negotiations drag on

PHOENIX (AZFamily) — Water is vital for just about everything in Arizona, for drinking, farming, and even building. One of the biggest sources of the state’s fresh water is the Colorado River. Just how much of that resource Arizona gets could change in the coming months.

“The hard thing right now is the great uncertainty,” said Sarah Porter, the ASU Kyl Center for Water Policy director.

Seven states rely on the Colorado River, which is broken up into two groups: the upper basin and the lower basin (which includes Arizona). Over the past year, negotiators from these states have been meeting to develop new regulations and water allotments, but so far they have failed to reach an agreement on a new plan.

“This uncertainty that we have right now creates a great deal of hardship for cities, for tribes, for all the water users,” said Porter.

She said the deadline for a new agreement is October 2026. While that might seem like plenty of time, she said, city leaders, developers, and farmers really need to know what they’re dealing with as soon as possible.

“If you’re a city and, 30% to 50% or even more, 60% of your water is Colorado River water, you don’t wait till the day before the new year to plan your water supplies,” said Porter, “If you’re a farming operation relying on water for growing crops, you have your crop plan two or three years in advance.”

While upper basin and lower basin states continue to go back and forth during talks, the river itself is facing a significant problem.

“We are in this mega drought,” said First Alert Chief Meteorologist Royal Norman. He said the drought situation, especially along the Colorado River, has not shown signs of improvement in recent years. Lake Powell, a reservoir of the Colorado River, is down about 36 feet versus this time last year.

What could help in the short term is a lot of snow in Colorado to feed the river, but the latest reports show they are well below average, about 57% of the average. “It’d be great if we got a bunch of snow on the Colorado, it would be great if that got into our reservoirs, it’d be great for all the states, but it’d be a very short-term thing,” said Norman.

If an agreement between the seven states isn’t made by October, the federal government is expected to step in. Either way, experts like Porter expect water cuts of some kind, but by how much is too early to tell.

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