La Niña likely one of many factors fueling Los Angeles-area wildfires

PHOENIX (AZFamily) — The Climate Prediction Center announced on Thursday that La Niña has officially arrived. How does this play a role in the southern California wildfires, and how does it affect the weather here in Arizona?

La Niña is likely one of many factors in the dry recent conditions in southern California. However, the dry conditions are only part of the story.

The brutal Santa Ana winds have also played a huge role. Therefore, La Niña did not directly cause the fires, but it is probably part of an unfortunate combination of variables that contributed to the disaster.

During the winter, La Niña tends to push the storm track into the northern part of the United States. As a result, La Niña winters tend to be wetter than usual in the northwest and drier than normal in the southwest. This means that northern California leans wetter and southern California leans drier.

It’s already been quite dry in southern California this winter, and if La Niña trends hold up, this dry trend could continue.

For the short term, the Climate Prediction Center is leaning drier than average in southern California for 8 to 14 days into the future. This dry weather is not only due to La Niña; there are likely many other variables at play as well.

Finally, La Niña does not guarantee dry weather during the winter in southern California. There have been cases when La Niña has been wetter than normal during southern California winters.

We can use Arizona to make this point. Much of Arizona also tends to be drier than normal during La Niña winters, but not always. In Flagstaff, two out of three of the most recent winters had below-normal snowfall, but one out of three had above-normal snowfall.

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