We’re a week away from the latest ever “arrival” of the monsoon in Phoenix using the old legacy definition. That definition demanded three consecutive days of dewpoints averaging 55 degrees or more before the monsoon would be declared here. We’ve had two straight days, but not three. And with more drier air headed in, it’s unlike our monsoon start date will be this weekend.

However, the weather pattern early next week, while not nearly a lock, is looking more moist for central Arizona and we have 20% chances for rain in the forecast Monday thru Thursday. That tells you something. We’re pretty sure the ingredients for thunderstorm development will be available on those days, but a myriad of other factors could tamp those chances down. Hence the 1 in 5 chance at this point. Hopefully, as we move thru the weekend, the forecast will come into greater relief.

In the meantime, quiet tonight and tomorrow with a low tonight in the mid-80s and highs around 108.

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Arizona’s Family Chief Meteorologist | Arizona’s Weather Authority

With 25 years of experience forecasting weather and his vast knowledge of Arizona and its micro climates, Royal is an Arizona Weather Authority.

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