PHOENIX (3TV/CBS 5) -- It’s Aug. 15 and we only have a month and a half left for the monsoon. And so far, it’s been pretty pathetic around the state.

In almost every statistic available, from blowing dust to lightning to rain, it’s been a summer thunderstorm season to forget about. So far, we’ve only had 0.27” of rain at Sky Harbor Airport. We’re more than 80% behind normal summer rainfall.

Monsoon rainfall at Phoenix Sky Harbor

Summer rainfall thru Aug. 15, 2019.

If for some strange reason we get no more rain before Sept. 30, the end of the monsoon, it will go down as the driest monsoon on record. Here's a look at the last 10 years of monsoon rain at Phoenix.

Monsoon rain at Sky Harbor last 10 years

These totals are as Aug. 15, 2019.

It will probably go down as the fourth straight season with below-average rainfall.

So, as we look to September, we don’t have great news. The new 30-day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center puts Arizona in a category of “equal chances.” That means we have equal chances to have more rain than average, or less. Flip a coin.

Climate Prediction Center Outlook for September

Forecast precipitation.

We are getting a stronger message on temperatures for September, which looks to be hotter than normal. We’re used to that, I guess.

Climate Prediction Outlook for September

Forecast temperatures.

For metro Phoenix, the monsoon does not play a major role in water supplies, but it doesn’t hurt either. We’re much more dependent on the winter snow.

There's more potential bad news. The latest winter outlook for January, February and March 2020 shows, again, just “equal” chances of more or less precipitation. At this point, I’ll take average rain and snow.

3TV Chief Meteorologist Royal Norman always has his eye on the radar and how weather conditions might affect the people of Arizona.  He also loves telling those quintessential stories that are uniquely Arizona. With 35 years of experience forecasting weather and his vast knowledge of Arizona and its micro climates, Royal is an Arizona Weather Authority. 

Copyright 2019 KPHO/KTVK (KPHO Broadcasting Corporation). All rights reserved.

Arizona’s Family Chief Meteorologist | Arizona’s Weather Authority

With 25 years of experience forecasting weather and his vast knowledge of Arizona and its micro climates, Royal is an Arizona Weather Authority.

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(5) comments

JF Conlon

Royal, you missed your opportunity here, so I'll announce it! NONSOON !!


Oh, blow it up you xss .[censored]


It's called global warming. Heck is was 94 degrees the other day at the arctic circle.. I think Alaska is seeing temps in the mid-80's, GreenLand shed 80 billion tons of ice last week. Once the permafrost in Alaska melts and trillions of tons of methane are released and people are choking them maybe, just maybe people will begin to think global warming is real. Of course it will be too late then... heck it's already too late.


Global warming increases rainfall, and is not the explanation for the dry monsoon. Suggest you take the time to learn what you're commenting about.

JF Conlon

trump is going to buy Greenland. That will solve the (nonexistant) problem.

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