We’re under a week away from the latest ever “arrival” of the monsoon in Phoenix using the old legacy definition. That definition demanded three consecutive days of dew points averaging 55 degrees or more before the monsoon would be declared here. We’ve had two straight days, but not three. And with more drier air headed in, it’s unlike our monsoon start date will be this weekend.

However, the weather pattern early next week, while not nearly a lock, is looking more moist for central Arizona and we 30% chances for rain in the forecast Tuesday following by a 20% chance for rain the rest of the week. That tells you something. We’re pretty sure the ingredients for thunderstorm development will be available on those days, but a myriad of other factors could tamp those chances down. Hence the one in three to one in five chance for rain at this point. Hopefully, as we move through the weekend, the forecast will come into greater relief.

In the meantime, quiet tonight and tomorrow with a low tonight in the mid-80s and highs around 108.

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Arizona’s Family Chief Meteorologist | Arizona’s Weather Authority

With 25 years of experience forecasting weather and his vast knowledge of Arizona and its micro climates, Royal is an Arizona Weather Authority.

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