PHOENIX (3TV/CBS) -- Is Arizona already flattening the curve? That is the ultimate goal, and new numbers and study projections are looking much better for Arizona.

While the state health department is encouraged, they said we are in no way out of the woods yet.

Arizona’s Family compared the numbers from the University of Washington COVID-19 model from March 31 to April 7. This is a model the health department is watching closely.

On March 31, the model predicted by August 4 Arizona would have 1,575 coronavirus deaths. Now, it’s projecting 570 deaths.

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Last week, the model projected the state would need 5,000 hospital beds and would be 222 ICU beds short. But on April 7, the model showed Arizona now needs 850 hospital beds and is 0 ICU beds short.

There’s been a lot of talk surrounding ventilators and whether Arizona has enough. According to the model a week ago, Arizona was going need 584 ventilators. But on April 7, it said Arizona will likely only need 150.

Arizona’s Family talked one on one with Dr. Christ about the numbers Tuesday and asked her if Arizona is already flattening the curve. “It’s a little too early to call it that because we’ve been monitoring for several weeks, but we’re going to need several weeks more before we can see what’s going to happen.” Dr. Christ said. “We won’t have good data on that for another week or two. “What people can take away is that we’ve been putting measures into place that appear to be changing our projections.”

Dr. Christ said sometimes case reporting over the weekend isn’t as accurate as during the weekdays, so the health department will be looking very closely at the numbers this week. She said while these new projections are hopeful,  it will still take more weeks of everyone continuing to practice social distancing and staying at home to keep making a difference.


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