Arizona’s Family/HighGround Statewide Survey: Hamadeh leads Mayes in AG race

The survey was conducted among likely voters from October 12 through 13, 2022, with a random sample of 500 people
Updated: Oct. 19, 2022 at 7:00 AM MST
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PHOENIX (3TV/CBS 5) — Arizona’s Family has partnered with HighGround, the oldest public affairs firm in the state, to take a closer look at the biggest races in this year’s midterm election and possible outcomes by polling voters.

About the Survey

The survey was conducted among likely voters from October 12 through 13, 2022, with a random sample of 500 people. The poll surveyed likely Arizona 2022 General Election voters with a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender. The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to landline and cell phone users. Based on previous midterm election trends, the partisan advantage was set at +8% GOP. The margin of error is ±4.3%.

The next Arizona Attorney General

Like the races for governor and secretary of state, there will be someone new leading the attorney general’s office. Current AG Mark Brnovich has reached the two-consecutive term limit after winning elections in 2014 and 2018. On the ballot for 2022 is GOP nominee Abe Hamadeh, an Army Reserve intelligence officer and former prosecutor for the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office. On the other side is a law professor and former Arizona Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes.

According to HighGround’s survey, Hamadeh leads Mayes with 43.4% to 38.2%. Break it down and Mayes leads among female voters and in younger-trending age groups, but not by significant numbers. There’s also nearly 17% of those surveyed who were undecided.

“Democrats need these unaffiliated voters to break for them and in pretty sizable ways in order to win, and Mayes is just not seeing it,” explained Paul Bentz, HighGround Senior Vice President for Research and Strategy. “She does have the slight female advantage at 45 to 35 (percent), but she’s not getting that 15 to 20 point advantage that we do see the other Democrats getting in this race.”

Why is there a larger gap in this race?

The survey shows Mayes is also at a 20-point deficit among voters 65 and older. Bentz has an idea of why that gap could be so wide, particularly for this office. Hamadeh’s campaign has put a large focus on law and order and promises of improving border security. The GOP candidate has also vocalized support for law enforcement and has been endorsed by several law enforcement agencies including the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police.

“I do think there is a built-in bias among voters when it comes to law and order, when it comes to law enforcement, I think they tend towards Republicans,” Bentz said. “That’s just sort of the behavior we’ve seen in the past.”

Continuing Coverage

Links to our related reports as part of the Arizona’s Family/HighGround Statewide Survey:

Stay up-to-date with our election headlines and be sure to check out our Voter’s Guide, covering everything from different ways to vote, to how to track the status of your ballot.

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