Arizona’s Family/HighGround Statewide Survey: Finchem holds 1-pt. lead over Fontes for Secretary of State

PHOENIX (3TV/CBS 5) — Arizona’s Family has partnered with HighGround, the oldest public affairs firm in the state, to take a closer look at the biggest races in this year’s midterm election and possible outcomes by polling voters.

About the Survey

The survey was conducted among likely voters from October 12 through 13, 2022, with a random sample of 500 people. The poll surveyed likely Arizona 2022 General Election voters with a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender. The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to landline and cell phone users. Based on previous midterm election trends, the partisan advantage was set at +8% GOP. The margin of error is ±4.3%.

Mark Finchem leads Adrian Fontes in close race for Arizona Secretary of State

HighGround’s survey asked voters who they would pick if the election were held that day. Based on responses, it’s a close race for Arizona Secretary of State. In this contest, Republican Mark Finchem faces Democrat Adrian Fontes for the seat currently held by gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs.

In total, HighGround’s survey found that it’s 42.2% for Finchem and 41% for Fontes, which is within the margin of error. Similar to other state races, more women are voting Democrat. In this race, it’s a 10-point lead for Fontes among women, 46.5% to 36.2%. On the other hand, 48.8% of men surveyed said they would vote for Finchem.

Also similar to other state races, Fontes leads by a wide margin for voters 29 and under, 51.5% to 25%. That gap narrows as the age groups get older and Finchem leads among voters 50 and up. For 65 and up, Finchem leads by nearly 13 points at 49.4% to 36.9%.

Key Takeaways

While there are similarities in partisan voting based on gender and age in this race, there is one big difference: the percentage of still-undecided voters for Secretary of State, which this study finds is at 15%.

“We start to see the undecided shoots up when you get to these down-ballot races … this (race) is certainly not over,” explained Paul Bentz, HighGround Senior Vice President for Research and Strategy. “It’ll be interesting to see what portion of them (undecided voters) just choose not to vote in this race, or if they default to the opposite of what they chose in the top two — in the governor and Senate race.”

Then there are those who say they will probably vote for Finchem, or they will probably vote for Fontes. Those numbers could change as well, especially among Independents.

“I also think it speaks to the fact that quite frankly neither party is very good at talking to Independents until right before voting starts,” Bentz said. “The less solidified those Independent folks are because they just don’t know these candidates; there’s a significant information gap.”

Continuing Coverage

Links to our related reports as part of the Arizona’s Family/HighGround Statewide Survey:

• Hobbs has slight lead over Lake in governor’s race
• Masters closing gap with Kelly in Senate race
• Hamadeh leads Mayes in AG race
• Horne leads Hoffman in race for Superintendent
• Where voters stand on Propositions 211 and 310

Stay up-to-date with our election headlines and be sure to check out our Voter’s Guide, covering everything from different ways to vote, to how to track the status of your ballot.

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