New poll reveals Arizona governor’s race nearly tied weeks before early voting

The survey reveals the governor’s race is neck-and-neck, with Lake trailing Hobbs by just a single point.
Published: Sep. 27, 2022 at 7:06 PM MST
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PHOENIX (3TV/CBS 5) -- With just a couple of weeks away from the start of early voting in Arizona, a new poll by the Arizona Republic and Suffolk University shows the governor’s race is a virtual tie. Despite being outspent by Democrat Katie Hobbs in television ads, Republican Kari Lake now has her own ad, focusing on her life growing up.

“You’ve heard a lot of lies about me this past year, but here’s the truth,” Lake begins the video. “I was raised by a big family in Iowa, dad was a teacher, and mom was a nurse.” The 30-second ad focuses on Lake’s background but doesn’t mention the issues that propelled her to victory in the August primary, such as claims of voter fraud, her stance on immigration and her crucial endorsement from former President Donald Trump.

The commercial dropped on the same day as the new poll. The poll reveals the governor’s race is neck-and-neck, with Lake trailing Hobbs by just a single point. However, part of the survey didn’t reflect last week’s abortion ruling.

Republican political consultant Marcus Dell’Artino says Friday’s abortion ruling could significantly impact the outcomes of nearly every statewide race. “Polls are a snapshot in time for that day. They’re good for about 24 hours until the news cycle changes, and this was a dramatic moment that’s going to be ongoing. Polls conducted prior to this probably are not accurate today,” he explained.

Hobbs has consistently said she backs legal access to abortion, while Lake opposes abortion. However, Lake hasn’t specifically voiced her position on the near-total abortion ban reinstated by a Pima County judge. “Today we’re operating in a different environment, under a different state statute. People are very emotionally charged and passionate about it and I would argue polls now would be reflective of today’s attitude,” said Dell’Artino.

The poll also shows Democrat Mark Kelly has a seven-point lead over Republican opponent Blake Masters.