First Alert WX Days coming as we track tropical moisture

Storms could pack a punch late week
We are declaring First Alert WX days for Friday and Saturday for the chance of thunderstorms capable of producing flooding, damaging wind gusts and lightning.
Published: Aug. 16, 2022 at 3:15 PM MST
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PHOENIX (3TV/CBS 5) -- Lots of high clouds this Tuesday. Even with those clouds, temperatures are still north of 100 degrees in many Valley cities. Isolated thunderstorms continue to be a possibility but should remain in the elevated areas around the Valley. Lows tonight are in the mid 80′s with a light breeze out of the southwest. Our ozone levels remain high here in the Valley, so the High Pollution Advisory has been extended until Wednesday night.

On Wednesday, highs should be on average, near 105 across the Valley, with just a slight chance of isolated storms late in the day. Winds from the south will switch to the west in the afternoon and evening hours. Models suggest a chance for isolated thunderstorms in the evening hours at around 40%.

Thursday through Sunday is when we anticipate a big push of tropical moisture from an old, tropical system currently in West Texas. Timing and amounts are always tricky to nail down with any tropical system that crosses into the Desert Southwest. But we are declaring First Alert WX days for Friday and Saturday for the best chance of severe thunderstorms capable of producing localized flooding, damaging wind gusts and plenty of lightning.

Rain chances are high at this point, but with any tropical moisture, we’ll need a trigger to set off the convective activity. Excessive cloudiness can always limit this activity, so it’s something to look out for, but the sheer amount of moisture forced into Arizona at this time of year fuels the flood potential of these storms. If this system tracks farther south, our storm chances diminish.

One certainty of this forecast is that our daily highs should cool to below average; rain days could see cooling to the low 90′s! Of course, with this entire scenario, the risk of flooding is greatest in the High Country and near any burn scar. So take precautions now as we track these developments all week long, right here on Arizona’s Family!