Flood potential continues in northern Arizona

PHOENIX (3TV/CBS 5) -- The overall monsoon pattern hasn’t changed much in the past 24 hours, which means the Valley will again be in the “slight” chance for storms category. Most of the storms will be in northern and southeast Arizona. And again, overnight, there will be a chance some outflows converge near Phoenix and create additional thunderstorms. But as we know, not every collision of outflows results in storms, especially when the atmosphere around the Valley is as stable as it’s been the past 48 hours.

We still have a flood watch for northern Arizona until 9 p.m. tonight. We’re keeping a close eye on the various burn scars around the state as that’s where rapid and intense flash flooding can develop very quickly. That and saturated ground is also making the potential flood situation worse. This afternoon produced the first flash flood warning of the day in Mohave County north of Kingman.

While we think the number of storms will uptick as we head toward the weekend, we’re still not seeing any strong monsoon “signs.” The forecast seems a bit unfulfilling as we carry that chance for thunderstorms into next week, but we can’t pick a decent “window” that’s better than any other time for rain. We would be surprised if we don’t get some storms in the Valley either Saturday or Sunday or overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.

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