There's a warm weekend ahead for Arizona!
As a ridge of high pressure builds into the desert southwest, look for warm and dry conditions across Arizona this weekend. In metro Phoenix, that will translate into lots of sunshine and high temperatures in the low 80s with overnight lows in the 50s. In the mountains, expect highs in the 50s and 60s.
The warm and dry weather is part of a long-term trend that our long-range models are predicting. If they hold, it’s likely the rest of the winter and spring will be warmer than normal and drier than normal.
And, by the way, the early call on the Arizona monsoon, AKA our summer thunderstorm season, is not all that great. At this point we’re trending toward a hotter than normal summer with precipitation about average. In Phoenix, that means we’d get about 2 ¼” of rain from July through September.
Now just a word about long-range forecasting; while it’s getting better it's by no means a lock. As an example, we had expected a warmer than normal and drier than normal winter in Arizona. While the final chapter hasn’t been written, it may turn out to be just the opposite; cooler than normal and wetter.
We’ve had a lot more snow than many forecasters expected.