Monsoon’s last stand in 2013?

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by Meteorologist Royal Norman

Bio | Email | Follow: @RoyalNorman

azfamily.com

Posted on September 5, 2013 at 5:41 PM

Updated Thursday, Sep 5 at 6:00 PM

PHOENIX -- First the disclaimer: We’ve seen forecast information like this before this summer, and, despite our forecasts, there hasn’t been much rain. At least when we forecast it. The monsoon has been very difficult to pin down this year.

We forge on.

By the weekend, we’re going to see a decent monsoon flow from the south set up over Arizona. That should bring abundant moisture into our state, especially by Sunday. Tropical Storm Lorena, which is currently located south of the tip of Baja, seems to be headed our way and the moisture from Lorena (it will not be a tropical storm when it gets here) should be coming into western Arizona as well.

Add to that a trigger. An upper level low will be developing over the southwest and that should help to de-stabilize the atmosphere and help fire up the storms. By Sunday and Monday we could see an abundant number of thunderstorms around Arizona with the potential for heavy rain.  The moisture, and the upper level “trigger” are expected to hang around through the middle of next week.

This is sort of a first alert that we may be setting up for an interesting few days of thunderstorms beginning Sunday. But we’ve been here before this year so stayed tuned.

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