Looking ahead: Early Thanksgiving forecast

Posted: Updated:
(3TV/CBS 5) -

Thanksgiving is more than a week away, but it's looking more and more likely we'll see warm and dry weather that day across Arizona. Strong high pressure to our south is responsible for our latest stretch of above average temperatures. Although that ridge loses its strength over the next few days when low pressure moves across our region, weather models show that ridge rebuilding again as we head into next week. That means temperatures go from the mid-80s the rest of this week to the upper 70s  Saturday, and then rebound to the low 80s by Sunday.

MOBILE/APP USERS: CLICK HERE TO SEE GRAPHIC OF FORECAST

 Longer-range weather models mostly agree that our weather pattern keeps a dry, westerly flow in place through mid-week. That would bring high temperatures in the low to possibly mid-80s by next Thursday. That's almost record heat for this time of year. The record for next Thursday, November 23rd, is 87 degrees. Hopefully, we won't get that warm, but we look to be closer to the record than "average," which is 72 degrees on Thanksgiving.

We've been talking for months about the likelihood of a warm and dry fall, and that's what we're seeing play out. Winter doesn't look much better with a La Nina weather pattern setting up. That typically means a warmer and drier than average winter for the Southwest.

MOBILE/APP USERS:  CLICK HERE TO SEE NOAA'S EXPLANATION OF LA NINA

The folks at Arizona Snowbowl won't likely be thrilled with that outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. They've already pushed back the opening of the ski resort twice. This morning they announced they're now hoping to open sometime next week. They're busy making snow, but until the weather cools down, that won't be enough.

MOBILE/APP USERS:  CLICK HERE TO SEE THE IMAGE FROM ARIZONA SNOWBOWL

We also could use the rain here in the Valley.  Today is our 84th consecutive day with no rain.  Our last measurable rain was on August 23rd, during the monsoon.

MOBILE/APP USERS:  CLICK HERE TO SEE THE GRAPHIC OF THE VALLEY'S DRY STRETCH

The high country isn’t faring much better. 

MOBILE/APP USERS:  CLICK HERE TO SEE THE NWS GRAPHIC ON RAIN

We’ll keep you updated as the next few storms push toward our region. At this point, there’s only a slight chance for light rain over the next few days across Northern Arizona. We’ll have to wait a bit longer for rain in the desert, a good snowstorm in the mountains, and temperatures finally cool enough for fall boots and scarves. At this point, it looks more likely we'll be spending Thanksgiving in flip-flops. 

Click/tap here to download the free azfamily mobile app.

Copyright 2017 KPHO/KTVK (KPHO Broadcasting Corporation). All rights reserved.


  • Arizona's Family Weather BlogMore>>

  • How cold is too cold for your dog?

    How cold is too cold for your dog?

    Friday, December 8 2017 11:26 AM EST2017-12-08 16:26:20 GMT
    A coat may be a good option for some dogs, but make sure it is loose fitting and doesn't obstruct the dog's movement. (Source: 3TV/CBS 5)A coat may be a good option for some dogs, but make sure it is loose fitting and doesn't obstruct the dog's movement. (Source: 3TV/CBS 5)

    Winter is here and that can mean some seriously cold weather in Arizona! But how cold is too cold for your pet pooch?

    More >

    Winter is here and that can mean some seriously cold weather in Arizona! But how cold is too cold for your pet pooch?

    More >
  • The 103-day dry streak is concerning

    The 103-day dry streak is concerning

    Monday, December 4 2017 7:07 PM EST2017-12-05 00:07:29 GMT
    It could be awhile before Arizona sees snow or rain. (Source: mycola / 123RF Stock Photo)It could be awhile before Arizona sees snow or rain. (Source: mycola / 123RF Stock Photo)

    Dec. 4 is the 103rd day without measurable rain in Phoenix. But on top of that, the entire state has been very dry the past several months. How hard could the forecast La Nina winter be?

    More >

    Dec. 4 is the 103rd day without measurable rain in Phoenix. But on top of that, the entire state has been very dry the past several months. How hard could the forecast La Nina winter be?

    More >
  • Full circle at Arizona's Family

    Full circle at Arizona's Family

    Monday, December 4 2017 4:29 PM EST2017-12-04 21:29:39 GMT

    Seventeen years ago this month, I moved out of Arizona to start my very first broadcasting job. It was a surprise to meet my future husband at that station, and even more of a surprise to be working side-by-side again so many years later. 

    More >

    Seventeen years ago this month, I moved out of Arizona to start my very first broadcasting job. It was a surprise to meet my future husband at that station, and even more of a surprise to be working side-by-side again so many years later. 

    More >