Numbers show housing recovery is under way

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PHOENIX -- Numbers seem to show what a lot of real-estate professionals have been saying -- a housing recovery is beginning in the Valley, even if it doesn't feel like a recovery.

“It's still not back to normal but a lot healthier than where we were,” said Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business.

Orr crunches numbers about housing, and if your house is worth less than $300,000, he sees good things.

“The most major change over the past 12 months is that supply is dramatically down,” Orr said.  “In fact, the supply of distressed homes, bank owned, is down by 75 percent or more.”

This news sounds great, but the perception of many homeowners is that they are underwater and they may drown before anything recovers.

“A neighbors house just sold for $65,000 less than what I paid for mine in late 2002,"
Kevin Voight told us through Facebook.

Melyssa Ardito Smith posted, “Currently $180,000 underwater.”

Ricky Beard passed along, “My property is worth what it sold new in 1973. 25k. Pd 139k”

"If you are dramatically underwater because you bought in 2006 and you had a 100-percent loan, it's going to take an enormous amount of good news to put that right,” Orr said.  “I'm talking about the first step on the path to recovery.  I'm not talking about bouncing back to 2006.  I don't think I see that in the future."