According to poll Republicans have uphill battle in Nov. 8 city election

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TUCSON, Ariz. -- The General Election in the City of Tucson is less than a month away and Wednesday the ballots will be mailed to every registered voter.

A new mayor will be elected, along with three seats on the city council.  And if you believe the latest poll numbers out Tuesday, one party has a tough road ahead to find victory.

Election day is November 8, but this year you can vote as early as this Thursday.

The latest poll numbers suggest if things don't change and fast, this election will be a democratic landslide.

"They are overwhelming numbers.  I think it reflects how poorly organized the republican party is and the poor quality of the candidates," said Pima County Democratic Chair Jeff Rogers.

According to the poll, in Ward 4, Democrat Councilwoman Shirley Scott leads Republican candidate Tyler Vogt 53 to 28 percent.  In Ward 1, incumbent Regina Romero is way ahead of Green candidate Beryl Baker 49 to 17 percent.  In Ward 2, Councilman Paul Cunningham is up 54 to 25 percent on Jennifer Rawson.  But the race for Tucson's next mayor is a bit tighter, Democrat Jonathan Rotschild leads Republican Rick Grinnell 49 to 32 percent.

"We feel really confident, but we're not going to sit back and celebrate.  We got to do work and turnout voters," said Peter Goudinoff.

Political analyst Peter Goudinoff says in a city like Tucson, it'll be tough to turn the numbers around.

"The Republicans can't win, but the Democrats can lose," said Goudinoff.

The problem for Republicans is the Democrats aren't making many mistakes this campaign cycle. Most of the gaffes this campaign season have been on the Republican side.

"Rick Grinnell maybe had a shot until he suggested picking up garbage every two weeks," said Goudinoff.

Now with the voting set to start later this week, it's a Republican race against the clock to turn the numbers around before November 8.


"There really isn't much time to turnaround.  At this point it's probably impossible," said Goudinoff.

The Pima County Republican Party declined to comment Tuesday night.

The poll was released by the Pima County Democratic Party.  Global Strategy Group conducted the survey from Oct. 10 to Oct. 12.

They surveyed 400 voters and it has a margin of error of 4.9 points.