Monsoon 2007 NearsPosted: Updated:
We're having pretty typical weather for late June: hot and dry. And on a few of those days, we're seeing a few isolated thunderstorms in the mountains of eastern Arizona. To date, we haven't seen any real strong signals that our summer thunderstorm season, at least in the Valley, is anywhere close to starting.
As you may have read in a previous blog, the idea is out there to upgrade the summer thunderstorm season (aka monsoon) to regional status, give it some dates. But until everyone gets onboard on that one, mostly the new folks in town I imagine, we'll stick with the dewpoint method. For now.
We need three consecutive days of dew points averaging 55 degrees or more in the Valley for the National Weather Service to declare the monsoon has started for the Valley. But as mentioned, it really has started already in eastern Arizona, New Mexico and northern Mexico.
But by that "old" criteria, it seems we're looking at an average start, around July 7.....or a bit later. It does look like the first week of July we'll see an increase in afternoon thunderstorms in eastern portions of Arizona. That could translate into a desert monsoon start a week or so later.
What do we expect out of Monsoon 2007? A hotter-than-normal summer with about average rainfall. For the Valley, that means about 2-1/2 inches of rain.