Phoenix weather: Monsoon upswing

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by Meteorologist Royal Norman

Bio | Email | Follow: @RoyalNorman

azfamily.com

Posted on July 8, 2014 at 5:37 PM

Updated Tuesday, Jul 8 at 10:11 PM

PHOENIX -- It looks like the monsoon will be ramping up across Arizona over the next couple of days. That includes metro Phoenix.

While an abundance of the storms will be in the mountains and in southern Arizona, the Valley has a decent chance over the next 24 hours of getting some rain.

A dust storm is a possibility as well. A monsoon weather pattern will continue into the weekend. Each day will bring varying chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the region.

Tuesday through Thursday appear to be a bit more favorable than over the upcoming weekend as drier air from the west may begin to move into the region

For the lower deserts, the favored area for storm formation will be across south-central Arizona. Given the lack of forcing and any consequential disturbances in the upper flow, along with the weak upper wind field and weak steering flow, it appears that we are setting up for a day where convection is driven largely by boundary interactions.

Storms will fire initially over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona, then drift slowly westward or towards the northwest. And they will send outflows into the lower central deserts. Boundary interaction will then spur new convection, and storms will be isolated to scattered, and somewhat hit or miss.

Potential for locally heavy rain is there, and probably heavy rain will be more of an issue than strong gusty wind, although a wet micro-burst is certainly possible.

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