PHOENIX -- Our longer-range forecast maps are anticipating that the break in the monsoon around metro Phoenix may last through the coming weekend.
A trough of low pressure, which is bringing us a southwesterly flow of drier air, is beginning to weaken. However, as it does, the polar jet stream will sag a bit, bringing a more westerly flow across Arizona. That’s also an indicator of dry air this time of year and that will result in a continued reduction in the number of thunderstorms around Arizona.
High temperatures for the next several days around Phoenix will be in the 104-107 degree range, about average for this time of year.
But the bottom line is the combination of deep southwesterly flow and very dry air over the region will keep monsoon convective activity well off to our east through Saturday. A return of monsoon moisture and increasing storm chances are expected by late Sunday with widespread moisture spreading over the entire region by early next week.